Table 2

Performance of decision rules to identify the best local provider

Decision ruleProbability to identify the best local providerProbability to come close to the best local provider
Selecting the local provider with the lowest:Fixed observation periodFixed sample sizeFixed observation periodFixed sample size
EstimateEmbedded Image0.610.700.730.81
Upper bound of 95% CI forEmbedded Image0.550.700.660.81
Posterior mean ofEmbedded Image0.580.700.720.81

  • ‘Coming close to the best local provider’ is defined as selecting a provider with a true value Embedded Image at most 1 percentage point above the best local provider.