Table 4

Measures of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) along with their corresponding 95% credible intervals

	Model 1*	Model 2*	Model 3*	Model 1*	Model 2*	Model 3*
	2010			2011
AUC values	0.770 (0.760 to 0.780)	0.770 (0.760 to 0.780)	0.772 (0.763 to 0.782)	0.691 (0.680 to 0.701)	0.691 (0.680 to 0.701)	0.696 (0.686 to 0.707)
Differences in AUC	Reference	0	0.002	Reference	0	0.005
	2012			2013
AUC values	0.698 (0.684 to 0.712)	0.698 (0.684 to 0.712)	0.716 (0.701 to 0.730)	0.735 (0.722 to 0.748)	0.735 (0.722 to 0.748)	0.750 (0.737 to 0.763)
Difference in AUC	Reference	0	0.018	Reference	0	0.015

*Model 1: an empty model with no fixed effects. Model 2: a two-level model with accreditation. Model 3: a two-level model with accreditation, gender and age.